Diesel generator alternatives : Market to reach $4.8 billion by 2029

Dr Iain Meager, Technology Analyst, IDTechEx

The diesel genset alternative market is forecast to grow from just under $1.5bn in 2019 to just over $4.8bn in 2029 according to a new report from IDTechEx - Diesel Generator Set Future Developments and Alternative Technologies 2019-2029.

As renewable energy technologies, such as solar, continue to become more efficient and more affordable we are seeing more and more examples of diesel generator end-users looking to replace large portions of their installed genset capacity. A reduced dependence diesel minimises risks from fluctuating diesel supply costs and can can save millions of dollars over the course of a project's lifetime. A simple model showing the costs of replacing 100 kW of installed diesel capacity with PV modules is shown below, assuming a genset operating for 8 hours a day at 75% load.

Through engagement with key stakeholders and analysis of diesel generator use across all key industries, the report looks at where the highest potential for replacement with alternative technologies is. In the short term, there are several scenarios where market penetration of renewable technologies will be greatest;

• Replacement of stationary genset systems used primarily in standby mode for backup power applications with zero emission alternatives, largely solar with battery storage.
• Replacement of stationary genset systems used for primary power applications in locations where diesel supply is expensive and/or unreliable including islands and remote or rural locations.
• Hybridisation of both existing and new temporary power systems for industrial activity including mining, oil & gas, construction, where a portion of existing diesel genset capacity is replaced by solar and/or storage, largely demoting gensets to a back up role.
• Replacement of smaller sized diesel gensets for mobile applications and shorter term projects. For medium and larger scale mobile genset needs, conventional reciprocating engines will remain dominant.

​The rate of growth is forecast to be comparatively less than the wider renewable energy and energy storage markets because the natural gas genset supply chain is forecast to strengthen in parallel, driving many end-users to the fuel in order to save money and meet tighter emission regulations. The figure shows the market value of alternative power generating technologies used in instances where generator sets would conventionally be used, rather than the total market value for these technologies. Currently, the bulk of this (95%+) is attributable to PV both with and without energy storage. Over the coming decade, PV will remain dominant, although other technologies (fuel cell, wave/tidal, wind) will take a growing proportion of the total value.

Whilst our forecasts see the recovery in the diesel generator market continuing over the next five years, this will then be followed by a longer period of gradual decline as market penetration of renewable technologies grows, as shown above. Important factors include the growth of hybrid micro/mini grids and rural electrification initiatives as well as existing large projects come to a close to be replaced by newer projects with reduced diesel reliance.

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NOTE for India!
This writeup by IDTechEx was sent to PluginIndia. Diesel generators are ubiquitous in every Indian city and small town. They are used to generate electricity in places where the grid is not reliable. We have seen people charging their electric scooters directly from a Diesel generator! These antiquated and highly polluting mobile generators need to go and be replaced by renewable alternatives especially solar and batteries. We thus felt this could be an appropriate article for PluginIndia. Please comment if you are interested in more such articles.
 
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