40-50% sales of all-electric and plug-in hybrids combined by 2030 is a weak goal in my opinion and frankly is just not enough. There’s going to be a massive shift in consumer demand within the next four-five years where the vast majority of the market is going to realize that their next car will have to be all-electric. Will Ford pivot and update their plans to meet that demand? Of course they won't. Ford is desperately hanging on to their ICE vehicle business and even in 2030 they want to sell millions of pollution vehicles. What Ford does not understand is the changing consumer trend towards electric cars. And companies like FORD that won’t adapt accordingly will be dead. Just like KODAK and NOKIA.
What are Ford's plans
CEO Jim Farley commented during the presentation:
"I’m excited about what Ford+ means for our customers, who will get new and better experiences by pairing our iconic, world-class vehicles with connected technology that constantly gets better over time. This is our biggest opportunity for growth and value creation since Henry Ford started to scale the Model T, and we’re grabbing it with both hands."
So what are FORD’s plans towards electrification?
- Ford will be investing $30 billion by 2025. This investment will be in batteries, vehicle architectures, software and key technologies.
- Ford is creating Ford Ion Park, a global center of battery excellence comprising more than 150 experts in battery chemistries, testing, manufacturing and value-chain management who will boost battery range and lower costs to customers and Ford.
- They announced their new cell format called the IonBoost lithium ion. Ion Boost Pro lithium iron phosphate for commercial and long-range vehicles.
- Ford has also invested in Solid Power, a solid-state battery startup just like VW, who have invested in a CA based solid-state battery startup Quantum scape.
- Ford also showcased a dedicated RWD/FWD battery electric vehicle platform. The flexible architecture will support multiple unique vehicle types between now and 2030.
- Ford has also signed a JV with Seoul, South Korea-based SK Innovation to manufacture battery cells for electric vehicles. The new venture, dubbed BlueOvalSK, will produce around 60 GWh.
- Ford is already selling the Mustang Mach-E SUV, The F-150 Lightning pickup truck and E-Transit commercial vans.
This does seem to be some progress especially with cell manufacturing, focus on software etc. Also the factory being built by SK Innovation & Ford is the largest facility built by Ford in its 118-year history and three times the size of the historic Ford River Rouge Complex factory in Michigan that has been cranking out cars for nearly a century. These three new battery factories will provide Ford with 129 GWh of battery capacity. Volkswagen expects to manufacture 240 GWh of batteries per year at its 6 European battery factories, with more coming from its newly announced factory in China. VW will be having around 3 times more battery cell capacity than Ford. Tesla’s first full-scale battery cell factory, which is located at Tesla Gigafactory Berlin, will produce up to 250 GWh.
First of all, it's good to see Ford investing in battery cell manufacturing, but do note that Ford is not expecting these new factories to be up and running until 2025. Tesla usually only needs 18 months to go from concept to products rolling out the door. It is fair to say Ford still seems to lack the sense of urgency compared to Tesla. Also Ford still won’t have the same levels of vertical integration like a BYD or Tesla. As I said in my earlier video, BYD makes all power electronics, motors, and even semiconductor chips in house. That will give them a competitive advantage.
While Ford owners in the USA have tremendous loyalty with their FORD pickup trucks, there is no such loyalty with Ford cars. Yeah, the Mustang has some appeal I guess but once Tesla and Chinese electric cars reach volume production, there will be far less takers for FORD cars. We are on the verge of a massive shift in consumer perception toward electric vehicles. This will result in a shift in consumer demand for electric vehicles as ICE cars will be broadly regarded as old technology, much like what the smartphone did to the Nokia phones over a relatively short period. Automakers who are able to secure the most battery cell supply and that have converted the most production capacity to electric vehicles by then - like Tesla, BYD are going to be the ones who will fare better in this market transition.
In 2020, the Ford Motor Company sold about 4.2 million vehicles to dealers and distributors worldwide. The North American market contributed about two million units to this wholesale volume. So Ford has plans of selling more than 3 million ICE cars and around 1.5 million EVs by 2030. As I already said in my Toyota video, the EU and China may stop accepting sales of ICE vehicles by 2030. Where will Ford sell those 3 million ICE cars?
Also, in 2030, ICE vehicles will cost more to manufacture than EV’s. ICE vehicles will attract carbon taxes in many countries due to the air pollution they cause. ICE vehicles will last 3-4 times less than a battery electric car so even selling those many ICE cars in US, Asia, Australia will prove to be difficult for Ford.
So my question to Ford is, who is going to buy a dirty noisy ICE car? Think about it. You can get electric cars now for more than 500-600 km per charge. In 2030, you will easily have 1000+ km electric cars. Battery tech will be cheaper. Electric cars will be cheaper than ICE cars. So who on God's green Earth will buy Ford’s ICE cars in 2030 Sure there will be crazy petrol heads even in 2030 who don’t want to or are incapable of understanding that EV’s are way better machines and they will continue to buy ICE garbage. But that would be a small percentage of people. Most people would want EV’s. No one wants to pay Rs 100 to 200 per liter of petrol.
Ford's political games with US Government
By the way Ford, GM, and Stellantis - the makers of DODGE and RAM all came together to release a joint statement that all of them will ensure 40% of their vehicles will be “low emission” vehicles. Low Emission. What does that mean? And why should they come together? It’s a pathetic PR exercise to show the world that they have some EV focus. But in reality they want the world to keep using OIL. We strongly believe the American car companies are signing their death warrant. Their EV plan is as poor as Biden’s goal of having only 50% of all vehicles be EV’s by 2030. Compare that to Canada, who aim to have 100% EV’s in 2030. China and Europe will have almost 100% EVs by 2030.
Also, the US government and their corporate cronies are now involved in anti competitive practices. They are even talking about giving extra incentives for electric cars made by Ford, GM compared to ones made by Tesla. In a recent event President Biden invited Ford, GM, and Stellantis to the signing of a new executive order to set “a new target to make half of all new vehicles sold in 2030 zero-emissions vehicles”. But Tesla was not invited. Is it not odd that the automaker that sells the majority of electric cars in the US wasn’t even mentioned at the event? However, that's beside the point. Tesla will keep innovating and capture the market share while BIG ICE companies like Ford and GM will go bankrupt. This event was, in reality, a marketing gimmick for the big auto laggards. Not having a hard deadline for zero-emission implementation and 50% EV sales including hybrids is a joke.
Car Industry teardown expert Sandy Munroe agrees with this view. He recently criticized the US government for continuing to support the laggards of the EV movement in Ford, GM and Stellantis while criticizing, punishing and stifling Tesla. This really is embarrassing for the US government. It just shows how they are corrupt and how lobbying by the BIG car companies is a form of institutionalized bribery.
Sandy Munroe also said how Tesla is the only American company that can compete with the Chinese. It’s not Ford. It’s not GM. And he recently posted a video in which I will share a clip on how companies like Ford, GM are finished.
Let’s watch the clip.
Wasn't Sandy incredible in that rant? And he is right, if Ford, GM don’t act soon, Tesla and the Chinese will capture their market and it will be over for them sooner rather than later.
What about India?
So by now, Indian viewers must be wondering why they should care. When Ford is struggling to even save themselves, why should you care about Ford? Both Ford’s plants in Sanand, GJ and Madras, TN will be shuttered in 2022 and Ford India says they may import cars in the Indian market. So essentially, the grand old American car company is as good as dead in India and soon globally. Ford has no choice but to pivot their operations to 100% electric by 2030. They need to start planning now in 2021 and 2022. If not they will go bankrupt. Poor Mr Henry Ford must be rolling in his grave.
Thanks guys for reading. Do write in the comments below on your observation and research you may have done on the American BIG ICE Mafia - Ford, GM etc.