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PluginIndia Electric Vehicles

Electric Vs Gasoline - The war of ecosystems

6/8/2014

6 Comments

 
By Nikhil Parchure 
When people think of electric vehicles, they think about battery technology, electric drive train and charging systems. But to be fair, the electric vehicle revolution is far more than that. It is a total shift from the gasoline ecosystem we are living in for the past century.

Gasoline ecosystem
Let me explain what I mean by the gasoline ecosystem. Crude oil is pumped from the oil wells and then refined to produce gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, plastics, solvents, lubricants and tar. These multiple products are made from a single raw material. All these products are sold in high volumes and due to high volumes, petroleum refineries manage a near perfect (100%) efficiency. The investment required to set up oil wells, refineries and transport infrastructure is shared by 1000s of products derived from the crude oil. So when you look at the gasoline prices, it has a huge advantage of cost sharing with all other products. Now, as the gasoline was cheaper and more energy denser than batteries that store the electricity, gasoline ecosystem won the race in the transportation sector.
PictureThe Electric Baker was ideal as a city car
Prior to commercialisation of gasoline cars, most of the cars were electric. In the United States companies like Baker electric were making electric cars. (See Jay Leno's Baker electric car demo: Link) but the cost effectiveness and convenience of gasoline cars made these electric cars obsolete. Gasoline cars succeeded because of the convenience and freedom from the limited range of electric cars. People using horse carts and slow trams were able to drive 10 times faster and were able to go to locations not reachable by other means available.

This boom of gasoline cars helped the development of efficient internal combustion engines and that engine technology made inroads in all modes of transportation. Trucks, buses, planes, boats and cars all shared platform developed on the gasoline ecosystem. More cars increased the demand for gasoline, which in-turn boosted the output of refineries. This improved volume reflected in more efficiency and further reduction in the cost. The benefits of this cost reduction were significant and were seen across all industries. Many people blame gasoline as a major reason for the global warming, but we cannot ignore the tremendous development that gasoline brought to the mankind. We should not dismiss the achievements of gasoline as a fuel. Cars, tractors, emergency generators and even our lawn mowers are powered by gasoline engines. That may have accelerated the problems of global warming, but at the beginning of the century our understanding of the global warming was fairly limited.

During this boom of the gasoline economy, one thing remained surprisingly constant and that is our source of electricity. Even though gasoline became cheaper and improved in efficiency, the internal combustion engine still could not match the efficiency of turbines in thermal power plants. Coal fired power plants are still more efficient than gasoline generators and have provided cheap electricity over past many decades. Cheap coal was hard to replace by gasoline as coal needs no refining or purification, it can be mined and directly used as a fuel.

The Electric challenge 
Now we are again at an interesting juncture in the history of the mankind. Electric vehicles with advanced battery technology are challenging the gasoline economy. People against electric vehicles may point out the cost and range as major hurdles in the mass adoption, but they cannot deny the fact that the efficiency of the electric motor (95%) will give an internal combustion engine (30% efficiency) a run for the money. 
Now the next major challenge for electric vehicle makers is the cost. Interestingly, we can learn a lot from the rise of the gasoline economy. The strength of the gasoline economy was not only the energy density and convenience of the system, but also a range of products supporting the system. To make electric vehicles successful, we can reapply the same principle to batteries (fuel storage for EVs) 

We have to make Electric vehicle part of the electric ecosystem. The war is not between who powers your car, but war is between who can deliver the usable energy at the cheapest and most convenient way to the end user. The diagram below shows how the ecosystem supports various applications. Each application provides additional volume and advantage to the overall ecosystem. The base of the gasoline ecosystem is crude oil and base of new emerging ecosystem is battery system and power electronics. 
Picture
As we bring more and more applications on a single platform, the efficiency of the manufacturing and cost of the system will drop. And as the cost of batteries and power electronics drops, more and more applications will become viable.
This is a very good cycle, which will be able to challenge the current gasoline ecosystem. Electric vehicles or any other new technology can win only if the whole ecosystem wins. The hydrogen fuel cell ecosystem is another ecosystem that can challenge the gasoline ecosystem, but again to win the war, hydrogen fuel cell has to challenge the whole ecosystem and not succeed only in niche applications.

The Future ecosystem?
I am convinced that the electric ecosystem will have the last laugh. The transition will be a slow, gradual process and we will be able to see it pan out over next few decades. Although the issues of global warming will drive the change, the cost of the system remains the ultimate tipping point. By no means I am discrediting the gasoline ecosystem, it has contributed tremendously in the development of mankind, but we need the electric ecosystem to take the next step.

6 Comments
Sateesh Reddy
7/8/2014 02:51:02 am

Nice write up. Its promising that someday EVs will change the current OIL based ecosystem.

But there is a long way to go.
a) EV battery technology needs to improve dramatically
b) Can Electric drivetrains transport heavy goods in vehicles like trucks, without loosing performance and efficiency?
c) Can scientists come up with a battery that matches or exceeds the energy density of Petrol?
d) Will the OIL lobby ignore this change? This is the most scary question according to me. Once they see the change happening they will do everything to stop it

But when i see all the intelligent scientists and businessmen working on EVs, i have some hope.

It might take 5-6 decades before we see oil free cities

Reply
Nikhil Parchure
7/8/2014 01:23:45 pm

Hello Satheesh

Really good points in your comments. Let me give you my two cents on your questions. Johnson has explained well in his response.
1. Battery technology is developing at a good pace. Right now energy density is still far lower and cost is higher compared to gasoline but the technological advancement is progressing faster than expected.
2. Electric drivetrain is far more capable than many people believe. Right now I am working on designing 18ton GVW electric bus and we have successful demo for past one year. Heavy diesel engines are not efficient and electrical drive train is far more suitable for these vehicles because of high torque at low RPM.
3. Battery that matches energy density of petrol will be difficult. The approach should be change the way we operate. For example trucks with 100 km range can use train to go 1000km and get off and drive the last mile (Project done by Kokan railway with diesel trucks). The approach should be highest efficiency and lowest cost rather than one to one replacement.
4. Oil lobby will continue to work against it as it hurts their business. But as electric vehicle ecosystem grows, electric lobby will become bigger than oil lobby :)

5 to 6 decades is a long time but I am optimistic that we will have oil free smart connected cities before that.

Reply
Sateesh Reddy
12/8/2014 02:11:43 pm

Thanks for the reply, Nikhil.

Its awesome to know that someone from the Industry is writing for PluginIndia. I'm impressed by the Electric Bus testing. Do you have some videos or writeups on PluginIndia?

Nikhil
18/8/2014 01:35:05 pm

Hello Sateesh
This was my first article for PluginIndia. I will be writing more articles but unfortunately day only has 24 hours. I do have some videos for electric bus I am working on. I will share it on PluginIndia shortly.
Nikhil

Johnson
7/8/2014 04:17:14 am

Satheesh Reddy... let me try to answer some of your questions:
a) EV battery technology needs to improve dramatically - it is indeed improving dramatically.... just by improving software algorithms battery companies are able to improve 10 to 20% performance and charging improvement...even the battery technology is improving dramatically.

b) Can Electric drivetrains transport heavy goods in vehicles like trucks, without loosing performance and efficiency? - This again comes back on battery - improved battery technology definagely will improve the concern here.

c) Can scientists come up with a battery that matches or exceeds the energy density of Petrol? - The average milage required for an e-car is range of 300km to make it seem equivalent to the range of a petrol car. and for bikes the distance is 600km.
But the fact is, even today, both Electric car and biker both are more economic than the petrol car because the cost of petrol is so high.

In any case I can forsee that Electric car and bike achieve the above milages within the next 5 yrs by yr 2019. This will become so especially as many people the world over are moving towards clean energy to produce their own electricity at home rather than buy expensive grid energy.

d) Will the OIL lobby ignore this change? This is the most scary question according to me. Once they see the change happening they will do everything to stop it. - Not only the oil companies but also the established petrol car companies would try to buy out such electric car companies like Reva only to smother it and kill it.

....It might take 5-6 decades before we see oil free cities

Lol Satheesh... you are wrong by 55 yrs... all it would take is 5 yrs... wait till 2019... the Chinese will enter the Indian market in 2016 then companies like Mahindra and Nissan Leaf will face some serious competition.

I am even afraid that Indian Companies like Tata and Mahindra might chose to close down its manufacturing hubs in India and open shop in China as the labour and other expenses in India are ALREADY very high.

On a side note the... Tourism industry will also suffer huge losses and loose out tourist to south east asian country. Tourism in India has already become very expensive due to the rising UNCONTROLED inflation. A week stay in any South East Asian countries are just half the cost of holidaying in ANY place in India for the same period.

Reply
Taylor Hicken link
26/1/2022 06:23:16 am

I do agree when you shared that the evolution of gasoline cars has contributed to the development of efficient internal combustion engines. This technology created inroads for most modes of transportation. I would like to think if someone is using a gasoline car, he should consider getting the fuel from a reputable supplier.

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