Professor Ashok Jhunjhunwala spoke about how the Indian EV Industry, backed by our government will solve issues related to electric mobility.
Note : This talk was given by Professor Ashok Jhunjhunwala during the first Electro Mobility Summit
PlugInIndia was at the summit and every word said by Professor Jhunjhunwala, was noted down faithfully for the benefit of the community.
PlugInIndia was at the summit and every word said by Professor Jhunjhunwala, was noted down faithfully for the benefit of the community.
Professor Jhunjhunwala at the Electro Mobility Summit
The Indian Auto Industry contributes around 7.1% to our GDP. The industry employs around 20 million people. The oil for transportation, which is refined and transported also contributes 5% to GDP
So the internal combustion engine (ICE) contributes around 12.1 to the Indian GDP.
Also the industry creates around 20 million unorganised jobs.
Do you think we want to disrupt all of this?
We need to start. As we need to curb our rising OIL imports, tackle air and noise pollution in our cities.
Electric Vehicles are going to happen, weather you like it or not.
Already we are observing that the Prices of batteries are falling every year. In India, in 5 years time, the cost of an electric vehicle (with sufficient range) will get at cost lower or equal to an ICE vehicle.
Operation cost will be about a 5th of the running costs of an ICE vehicle. The running cost of a small ICE car is Rs 5 per km and Rs 7 per km for a Sedan.
This cost will come down to Rs 1 per km or under Rs 1 for smaller EVs.
Many categories of ICE vehicles will gradually move to EVs.
Its a matter of time.
So the internal combustion engine (ICE) contributes around 12.1 to the Indian GDP.
Also the industry creates around 20 million unorganised jobs.
Do you think we want to disrupt all of this?
We need to start. As we need to curb our rising OIL imports, tackle air and noise pollution in our cities.
Electric Vehicles are going to happen, weather you like it or not.
Already we are observing that the Prices of batteries are falling every year. In India, in 5 years time, the cost of an electric vehicle (with sufficient range) will get at cost lower or equal to an ICE vehicle.
Operation cost will be about a 5th of the running costs of an ICE vehicle. The running cost of a small ICE car is Rs 5 per km and Rs 7 per km for a Sedan.
This cost will come down to Rs 1 per km or under Rs 1 for smaller EVs.
Many categories of ICE vehicles will gradually move to EVs.
Its a matter of time.
EV Costs
Today EV's all over world have 30-40% subsidy.
The Indian government cannot afford scaled subsidy. For example if each bus will have a subsidy of 75 Lakh per bus.
Imagine if we have to do 100000 buses. That kind of subsidy wont happen.
Our problem is we have 5 years to build a value chain to manufacture EV's.
Let us take 4 wheelers. Today people spend less than Rs 5 Lakh for a small petrol car.
If an electric car costs Rs 8 Lakh, that segment will not purchase an EV.
The Indian government cannot afford scaled subsidy. For example if each bus will have a subsidy of 75 Lakh per bus.
Imagine if we have to do 100000 buses. That kind of subsidy wont happen.
Our problem is we have 5 years to build a value chain to manufacture EV's.
Let us take 4 wheelers. Today people spend less than Rs 5 Lakh for a small petrol car.
If an electric car costs Rs 8 Lakh, that segment will not purchase an EV.
EV Range
The second problem is range. If an electric car has a range of 150 km. If you discharge the entire battery. What do you do?
You go to a DC Fast Charger. How long does it take to charge using a fast charger?
You have to wait for an average of 90 minutes. If you pump in more amps, you can charge in 60 minutes.
The more fast charging is done in extreme heat, You will have to replace batteries sooner. As Lithium chemistry is very sensitive to heat.
To combat this, Manufacturers will increase battery size. This leads to more added costs. And the car gets expensive. Most people will not buy.
We have another option here.
What if the manufacturer gives you an electric car without a battery?
The battery is given on rent. And batteries are swapped in existing petrol stations.
And you will pay less for the car. Battery on rent is fine, but there will be depreciation and energy costs which will be added and everytime you swap batteries, you will end up paying the same amount as compared to a PETROL vehicle.
This is not good. What is point of using an EV, if the energy costs are the same as using a Petrol car? And you have to go to a Petrol pump everytime you drive close to 100 kms. EV enthusiasts would want to charge at home too!
Okay, we have yet another option. What if manufacture gives you an electric car that goes upto 100 km per charge.
Users charge at home or work as current EV users do. When users want to do 200 kms or go on longer drives, they drive to a petrol pump and add a battery.
And next day you return the battery.
So in odd cases, users can add battery packs to extend the range. The day users want to drive longer, you go to a petrol pump and add a battery.
What if you want to go drive longer distances? Like Delhi - Chandigarh? Or Mumbai - Ahmedabad?
Then you swap the 2nd battery every 100 kms.
Would you buy such an electric car?
At this point, Mr Ashok asks the audience - if people will buy an EV with such a system of charging a main battery + swapping additional batteries for the occasional long distance trips.
Most people in the audience accept this as a viable solution for the short term.
You go to a DC Fast Charger. How long does it take to charge using a fast charger?
You have to wait for an average of 90 minutes. If you pump in more amps, you can charge in 60 minutes.
The more fast charging is done in extreme heat, You will have to replace batteries sooner. As Lithium chemistry is very sensitive to heat.
To combat this, Manufacturers will increase battery size. This leads to more added costs. And the car gets expensive. Most people will not buy.
We have another option here.
What if the manufacturer gives you an electric car without a battery?
The battery is given on rent. And batteries are swapped in existing petrol stations.
And you will pay less for the car. Battery on rent is fine, but there will be depreciation and energy costs which will be added and everytime you swap batteries, you will end up paying the same amount as compared to a PETROL vehicle.
This is not good. What is point of using an EV, if the energy costs are the same as using a Petrol car? And you have to go to a Petrol pump everytime you drive close to 100 kms. EV enthusiasts would want to charge at home too!
Okay, we have yet another option. What if manufacture gives you an electric car that goes upto 100 km per charge.
Users charge at home or work as current EV users do. When users want to do 200 kms or go on longer drives, they drive to a petrol pump and add a battery.
And next day you return the battery.
So in odd cases, users can add battery packs to extend the range. The day users want to drive longer, you go to a petrol pump and add a battery.
What if you want to go drive longer distances? Like Delhi - Chandigarh? Or Mumbai - Ahmedabad?
Then you swap the 2nd battery every 100 kms.
Would you buy such an electric car?
At this point, Mr Ashok asks the audience - if people will buy an EV with such a system of charging a main battery + swapping additional batteries for the occasional long distance trips.
Most people in the audience accept this as a viable solution for the short term.
Lithium Chemistries and Battery Pack Design
There are 3 types of batteries
instead of Carbon. But the disadvantage is lower energy density compared to Li-Ion and high costs.
is thermal and chemical stability. However the energy density is around 14% lower than LiCoO2.
Today u can get a LiNiMnCoO2 battery pack and not just cells at 220$ per kWh.
That cost will go down to 175$ , 150$ in 3-4 years. It may go lower.
40% of value is in raw materials. 30% value add is in battery cell.
30% is from cell to pack - which is a complex process. Creating a battery pack involves thermal design, the driving conditions, the usage conditions and temperature. A battery which is designed for Norway is not useful here in India.
The next is BMS - The Battery Management System - This is very complex. Every cell is being monitored to get maximum life of each cell.
BMS and Thermal Design are complex aspects of making battery packs.
There are Indian 50 startups are making Battery packs including BMS, Thermal design processes.
So it is a matter of time - we will have amazing packs assembled and made in India.
And there are companies like Exide and other large battery makers who will also make battery packs for EV's.
Ultimately packs have to be made in India.
We don't have technology and knowhow to make the individual cells. We have to tie-up with Chinese and Global companies like LG, Samsung, Panasonic. We will get them to manufacture in India.
It takes 2 and half years to setup a full scale plant. So by 2020, we can see Made in India battery pack.
What about raw materials? We don't have Nickel, Cobalt, Lithium. So will we continue importing these minerals?
Do we have to go and buy mines in China, Africa etc?
There are some companies - startup that we are working with that are focussed on Li-Ion battery recycling.
They showed me they can recover - Manganese, Lithium, Cobalt and Graphite.
We worked out a strategy. We will do urban mining. Send us used batteries from China and recover all these materials.
And these materials can be sold to other companies!
- Lithium Titanate
instead of Carbon. But the disadvantage is lower energy density compared to Li-Ion and high costs.
- Lithium Iron Phosphate Battery
is thermal and chemical stability. However the energy density is around 14% lower than LiCoO2.
- Graphite based Nickel Manganese Cobalt (LiNiMnCoO2) based battery
Is now being used by all EVs today in the world. Tesla, Chinese EVs all use packs made out of this chemistry etc.
Today u can get a LiNiMnCoO2 battery pack and not just cells at 220$ per kWh.
That cost will go down to 175$ , 150$ in 3-4 years. It may go lower.
40% of value is in raw materials. 30% value add is in battery cell.
30% is from cell to pack - which is a complex process. Creating a battery pack involves thermal design, the driving conditions, the usage conditions and temperature. A battery which is designed for Norway is not useful here in India.
The next is BMS - The Battery Management System - This is very complex. Every cell is being monitored to get maximum life of each cell.
BMS and Thermal Design are complex aspects of making battery packs.
There are Indian 50 startups are making Battery packs including BMS, Thermal design processes.
So it is a matter of time - we will have amazing packs assembled and made in India.
And there are companies like Exide and other large battery makers who will also make battery packs for EV's.
Ultimately packs have to be made in India.
We don't have technology and knowhow to make the individual cells. We have to tie-up with Chinese and Global companies like LG, Samsung, Panasonic. We will get them to manufacture in India.
It takes 2 and half years to setup a full scale plant. So by 2020, we can see Made in India battery pack.
What about raw materials? We don't have Nickel, Cobalt, Lithium. So will we continue importing these minerals?
Do we have to go and buy mines in China, Africa etc?
There are some companies - startup that we are working with that are focussed on Li-Ion battery recycling.
They showed me they can recover - Manganese, Lithium, Cobalt and Graphite.
We worked out a strategy. We will do urban mining. Send us used batteries from China and recover all these materials.
And these materials can be sold to other companies!
Final Words
So the smart people in our industry will work these problems out.
But we should always think about India. Our business should win only if India wins.
We are confident India will win in this EV revolution.
So the smart people in our industry will work these problems out.
But we should always think about India. Our business should win only if India wins.
We are confident India will win in this EV revolution.
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